HERE ARE THE PROBABILITIES PHILLIES MAKE PLAYOFFS AND WIN TONIGHT
By Sally Fahey
The Phills open their 10-game, season-ending road trip tonight in Chicago with Zack Wheeler pitching.
Here’s what FiveThirtyEight.com thinks of their chances:
NL East standings
| GAMES BACK | CHANCE TO MAKE PLAYOFFS |
CHANCE TO WIN DIVISION |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Mets 97-57 | — | ✓ | 73% |
 |
Braves 96-58 | 1.0 | ✓ | 27% |
 |
Phillies 83-69 | 13.0 | 76% | — |
 |
Marlins63-90 | 33.5 | — | — |
 |
Nationals53-100 | 43.5 | — | — |
Upcoming games
| DATE | TEAM | STARTING PITCHER | TEAM RATING | STARTING PITCHER ADJ. | TRAVEL, REST & HOME FIELD ADJ. | PREGAME TEAM RATING | CHANCE OF WINNING | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Sept. 27 2:40 p.m. Eastern | Phillies |
 Wheeler |
1530 | +28 | –1 | =1557 | 57% | |
 Cubs |
 Stroman |
1470 | +16 | +24 | =1510 | 43% | ||
| Wednesday, Sept. 28 7:40 p.m. Eastern | Phillies |
 Nola |
1530 | +28 | +0 | =1558 | 60% | |
| Cubs |
 Wesneski |
1470 | –3 | +24 | =1491 | 40% | ||
| Thursday, Sept. 29 2:20 p.m. Eastern | Phillies |
 Suarez |
1530 | +2 | +0 | =1532 | 58% | |
| Cubs |
 Assad |
1470 | –18 | +24 | =1476 | 42% | ||
| Friday, Sept. 307:05 p.m. Eastern | Phillies |
 Falter |
1530 | –22 | –3 | =1505 | 57% | |
| Nationals |
 Corbin |
1439 | –7 | +26 | =1458 | 43% | ||
| Saturday, Oct. 11:05 p.m. Eastern | Phillies |
 Gibson |
1530 | –26 | +0 | =1504 | 57% | |
| Nationals |
 Fedde |
1439 |
